Despite the COP28 conference being celebrated as a landmark in the global transition away from fossil fuels, it is now perceived as a triumph for oil and gas producers. Industry experts, including Ellen R. Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, assert that the rejection of language advocating for the "phaseout" of oil, coal, and gas was heavily influenced by objections from major oil-producing nations, such as Saudi Arabia. The importance of hydrocarbons in sustaining the modern way of life and fostering the development of countries has been underscored. The selection of Azerbaijan and Brazil, both significant oil and gas producers, as hosts for upcoming COP conferences signals an increasing influence of hydrocarbon producers in climate-related discussions.

Wood Mackenzie's analysis recognizes the COP28 statement's call for transitioning away from fossil fuels while acknowledging the challenges in securing stronger language due to opposition from leading oil and gas producers. The commitment to tripling renewables capacity, endorsing hydrogen, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and recognizing the role of transitional fuels reflects the evolving landscape towards a low-carbon energy system. The final COP28 text, with its explicit recognition of transitional fuels, favors natural gas for balancing intermittent renewables, especially while awaiting the development of new dispatchable technologies like hydrogen and nuclear capacity in the 2030s.

Wood Mackenzie's analysis acknowledges the feasibility of a phase-out of unabated fossil fuels by 2050 but emphasizes the need to double low-carbon supply growth compared to energy demand growth. Achieving this necessitates a rapid expansion of CCS and poses challenges in attracting investment. The analysis also underscores the substantial pressure on metal and critical mineral supply for the expected renewables build-out, presenting challenges in meeting the demand growth scenario aimed at achieving net zero by 2050.