The critical battleground at the COP28 climate summit in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates is the debate over the future of fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, categorically rejected any plans to phase down oil, gas, and coal. Activists raised concerns about the influence of fossil fuel lobbying at the talks, further complicating efforts to reach an ambitious agreement.

The most recent version of a potential agreement outlines two sharply contrasting options: initiating an "orderly and just" phase-out of fossil fuels or avoiding the issue altogether, according to negotiators. The draft presents three alternatives in total: a deliberate phase-out, accelerated efforts to discontinue fossil fuel projects lacking emissions capture and storage, or having "no text" on the subject.

An earlier draft proposing a "phase-down/out" option faced significant dissatisfaction among delegates, leading to a collapse in discussions, as reported by an anonymous Latin American negotiator speaking to AFP.

Saudi Arabia has firmly stated its refusal to support the phasedown of fossil fuels, let alone their complete phase-out. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman expressed skepticism about the viability of such measures and challenged proponents to outline their plans.

COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, who also heads the UAE's national oil company, believes that the phase-down and phase-out of fossil fuels are inevitable.

Climate campaigners are apprehensive that business interests aligned with the fossil fuel industry will dominate the UN summit, which, being hosted by an oil producer, has also seen a record number of fossil fuel lobbyists gain accreditation.

According to the NGO umbrella group Kick Big Polluters Out, 2,456 individuals connected to fossil fuel interests received accreditation for the talks, approximately four times the number at COP27 last year. This group, if considered collectively, outnumbers every country delegation except Brazil and the UAE.

Protests erupted inside the COP28 venue on Tuesday, with demonstrators holding signs advocating for the phase-out of fossil fuels and an end to fossil fuel funding. Some expressed skepticism about the UN's success if the fossil fuel industry continues to play a leading role in climate mitigation.

Scientists, activists, and several governments assert that phasing out oil, gas, and coal in favor of renewable technologies is crucial to preventing catastrophic overheating of the planet. An agreement on the role of fossil fuels is considered pivotal to the success of the UN talks, scheduled to conclude on December 12.